causalimpact 0.2.1

Python Package for causal inference using Bayesian structural time-series models

CausalImpact

TO DO

• Estimation is MLE not Bayesian

A Python package for causal inference using Bayesian structural time-series models

This is a port of the R package CausalImpact, see: https://github.com/google/CausalImpact.

This package implements an approach to estimating the causal effect of a designed intervention on a time series. For example, how many additional daily clicks were generated by an advertising campaign? Answering a question like this can be difficult when a randomized experiment is not available. The package aims to address this difficulty using a structural Bayesian time-series model to estimate how the response metric might have evolved after the intervention if the intervention had not occurred.

As with all approaches to causal inference on non-experimental data, valid conclusions require strong assumptions. The CausalImpact package, in particular, assumes that the outcome time series can be explained in terms of a set of control time series that were themselves not affected by the intervention. Furthermore, the relation between treated series and control series is assumed to be stable during the post-intervention period. Understanding and checking these assumptions for any given application is critical for obtaining valid conclusions.

Try it out in the browser

https://mybinder.org/v2/gh/jamalsenouci/causalimpact/HEAD?filepath=GettingStarted.ipynb

Installation

install the latest release via pip

pip install causalimpact

Getting started

Documentation and examples

Further resources

• Manuscript: Brodersen et al., Annals of Applied Statistics (2015)

Bugs

The issue tracker is at https://github.com/jamalsenouci/causalimpact/issues. Please report any bugs that you find. Or, even better, fork the repository on GitHub and create a pull request.